As Paul approaches the summit of Everest we know his thinking is dominated by the weather.
Hello, this is Nick Grainger in Melbourne. I’m the website and communications coordinator, and I thought I’d give everyone some insight into where Paul is getting weather forecasts from, what they look like, how they have influenced him over the last week, and what is forecast for the next few days.
Forecasting service
There are no free detailed weather forecasting services for the Everest region. So it’s not just a matter of turning on the radio or logging into a weather bureau site. But summit attempts are absolutely dependent on the weather. Last year Paul was reliant on others subscribing to and interpreting commercial forecasts. This year he decided to do it himself. With a contribution from Attila and Meagan, Paul subscribed to a daily Everest forecast from Meteotest, an independent private company, founded in 1981 and based in Switzerland, that specialises in preparing weather forecasts for anywhere in the world.
Forecasts received
Each day for the last week or so the on-duty forecaster at Meteotest has emailed me a rolling forecast for the next 7 days. This has usually arrived about my lunchtime and comprises a brief narrative commentary on the situation supported by a ‘Meteogram’, a one page compilation of weather chart data for the next week and a wind ensemble chart which shows the forecast wind above the summit on each day as calculated using a series of forecasting models. The output from each model is shown by a different colour line. If they are all close together the forecast is considered more reliable. Also included on some days is a series of images showing the forecast position of the jet stream over the Everest region.
Processing forecasts for the Everest team
As received the forecast package can be nearly a megabyte of data, much too big a file for Paul and the others to receive via their satellite phones and PDAs. These only allow a very slow link to the Internet, so big files are out. In order to send it to Paul, Meagan and Attila, I reduce it to a much smaller file by just selecting the images of most use, reducing their size and changing their file compression. At the same time I sometimes expand on the description and implications of the forecast because whilst I can see all the charts on my big screen on my desk, on Everest the team can only view a bit at time on their tiny PDA screens. So it’s much easier for me to see the whole picture than for them. Interpretation may be a bit easier too because I’m near sea level in thick air, not way above 20,000 feet in very cold thin air. And I’ve done it at sea a lot.
Why Paul delayed at Camp 2
Ardent followers of Paul’s climb will know that he paused for Saturday and Sunday at camp 2. This was due to the trend of forecasts received on Thursday and Friday, which indicated a jet stream driven change in weather systems passing over Everest on Monday and Tuesday. See the meteogram (right). Before the change the wind would be from the south, bringing snow and cloudy conditions, particularly in the afternoons. However the wind was forecast to abruptly shift to the north on Tuesday, bringing dry clear air over the mountain by late Tuesday, early Wednesday and continuing for the rest of the week. Such change can sometimes bring strong gusty conditions. After the change to the north, the wind was forecast to be initially light but steadily building during the rest of the week and swinging to the west. Overall the weather on Wednesday looked much more stable, and to be ideal for a summit attempt. As Paul said, the forecasts had been right so far, and he intended to continue to trust them. Attila decided to do the same, and wait for the change to pass before heading up the exposed Lhotse face to Camp 3 and 4. Meagan however decided to press on.
As it happened the southerlies of Saturday, Sunday and Monday dumped relatively little snow, and the wind shift from south to north came through late on Monday and passed relatively uneventfully. Meagan and a number of others successfully summited and returned safely.
Wednesday’s weather?
Paul and Attila are now on their way up, and in less than 12 hours will be setting off on their summit attempt from Camp 4. How is the weather forecast looking now?
In the most recent forecast, just received from Switzerland, duty forecaster Jurg says the conditions for the rest of the week remain stable, however the wind is expected to increase steadily from the west. Winds of less than 5 knots on the summit on Wednesday were forecast a day or so ago, but now are expected to be approaching 20 knots and to steadily increase on Thursday and Friday. But it should be dry and clear.
Will this affect Paul and Attila’s summit attempt? The summit of Mt Everest sticks into jet stream altitudes. Conditions can be almost unimaginably fierce. Weather forecasters can only look at the signs, and model them against history. In the end it’s the climber, the person there, that has to use their judgment.
Nick
Thanks for that Nick – very interesting and certainly makes you realise how much thought an dplanning and interpretation plus gut instinct from the climbers goes into these summit bids.
🙂
Hi Nick
Thank you for your detailed insight into the Everest weather forecasting services and your role as website and communications coordinator, you are doing a very fine job.
For me I always found here in Sydney that the commercial weather forecasters have no idea and the best bet seems to be getting up of a morning and looking skyward to get the most accurate and up to the minute weather forecast.
I expect that the weather forecast coupled with on the ground instinct will determine if the weather is satisfactory for a summit attempt.
Cheers
Roger
Paul, Nick, Fiona and team,
In the lead up I’ve been checking the website once a day and now that Paul and Attila are on the move and getting closer to the goal – I’m now checking for updates 3 times a day.
Fingers crossed with the weather and best of luck over the next 24 hours.
Jordan
G’day Nick,
Love your work!
Must be reassuring for Paul having backup like you and Fiona and the team. I wonder what Sir Edmund would have to say about all this new fangled technology? Probably begin with “Back in my day . . .” 🙂
Hi Paul I just heard your interview and you sound great.
Thanks for sharing this incredible journey again via great photos and informative web site. To be transported into this world is a true privilege.
Greg and I send you all our best wishes for the last leg tonight.
With all the excitement and feeling around the world I think the energy will be propelled into your ‘happy feet’ and lift you up those last metres.
Apart from that your preparation and mental attitude are outstanding – Go Paul and achieve your dream!
Importantly may your descent be safe and easy as possible.
How lovely to enjoy the views a second time.
Love and best wishes
Kathy
xx
Hi Nick
I didn’t realize how involved you were helping Paul and co. with the Everest weather forecasts. You did so much to help Paul and Fiona get their daily blogs out last year and of course let all of us supporters send our messages. And now this year…..well, thank you!!!!
Fingers crossed that the winds will not get to 20 knots on the 23rd although I realize that if they do it does not necessarily mean Paul and Attila will not go for the summit. So much to factor in. The info you provided regarding the weather reports was fascinating; so glad you posted it.
MC
for the timely information regarding the weather forecasting, certainly an interesting and important subject matter for Everest climbers and those following this climb. Keep up the good work…
wp
Nick, Interesting to hear how you use your hi-tech skills to transfer the weather forecasts to Paul. Thanks for the inside story. Truth is, Mother Nature will have the last word, and that’s when judgment/decision-making will come in. I’ll be crossing my fingers with MC that the winds do not blow as high as predicted.
Dena
Hi Nick,
I have already seen these on behalf of Attila, and I have to say your interpretation means a lot – even if you can see these meteorograms and ensembles it can be pretty difficult to read if you never did it before. Your sailing experiences make a difference here:) Also I have to add how important to figure it out which it the best day to summit … last evening a Hungarian guy from the other side of the Everest tried to summit again w/o oxygen (after two of them gave up a day ago, an his partner decided to turn back and leave the mountain) and he did not even had a chance to try again and ascent from his position (8300m) due to the strong wind he felt! For them it has ended due to the fierce conditions – not suitable for any stay longer on the mountain (note, they are up for more than 48hours). Even climbers are on oxygen turned back because of the weather.
Internet (and satellite) definitely has an effect on the expeditions communication;) – but without somebody sending valuable informations via internet on the other end it would not be such a useful…
Fiona, thank you for the updates about Paul and special thanks about news of Attila. His daily dispatches are coming through just later on and because of other Hungarians leaving the mountain now everybody is eagerly watching him.
Best,
Mira
Mira
hi nick. a most informative weather summary.other forecasts on the web confirm meteotests outlook…….wednesday morn. 25 midday. 30 evening . 20 kph windspeed.[20/30/30 thursday]……heres hoping mother nature plays her part and paul and atilla can summit safely tomorrow. keep up the great work .’regards.[ken.nz]
Jill, Dallas, TX
Please allow me to add my appreciation for YOUR contribution in this whole process, Nick!
Jill
Wow, the weather stuff is fascinating. Thanks for all the work you do/have done to make this website work so well. It’s my first stop for Everest blog viewing. I noticed it looks different today. Did you change the layout? Google Earth is in a much larger window now.
Thanks for all your hard work!
Shanda